Brasil está desperdiçando seu bônus demográfico
Mariana Timóteo da Costamariana.timoteo@oglobo.com.brSem avanço. Para Elza Berquó, Brasil não consegue avançar na questão do abortoMichel FilhoO IBGE acaba de divulgar novas projeções que mostram que o Brasil passa por um momento único causado pela queda da fecundidade. Com menos crianças e uma parcela ainda não tão grande de idosos, há proporcionalmente mais pessoas em idade de trabalhar e um número menor de dependentes. Mas isso tem prazo para acabar, já que o envelhecimento populacional acontecerá cada vez mais rápido. Estamos aproveitando este bônus demográfico?Não, porque, à medida em que você tem menos jovens, deveria ter melhores escolas, mas o jovem está sendo mal aproveitado. Se por um lado a demografia ajuda o emprego no Brasil, porque há muita gente ainda em idade economicamente ativa para preencher os postos de trabalho, é um paradoxo pensar que uma pessoa não necessariamente precisa se educar melhor para ter um salário satisfatório. É um desafio. Não à toa estamos começando a importar engenheiro, médico. E o que fazer quando a população envelhecer?Ao mesmo tempo, não se pode pensar que todo o mundo deva fazer uma faculdade. Um carpinteiro precisa ter o mesmo respeito e a mesma chance de vida digna do que um engenheiro. Investir em ensino profissionalizante pode ser uma boa resposta para isso.E essa população de idosos que precisará cada vez mais ser sustentada?A tendência é que as aposentadorias ocorram mais tarde, temos que jogar pra frente a idade de parar. É logico que aí pode haver uma reação do jovem, reclamando que o idoso está tomando o lugar dele. Trata-se de um conflito, mas que precisa ser encarado.As mulheres vêm tendo cada vez menos filhos. A senhora estuda muito a gravidez depois dos 30. A que conclusões tem chegado?De 2000 a 2010, o peso relativo da fecundidade das mulheres de 30 anos e mais na fecundidade total passou de 28% para 31%, o que é muita coisa, e isso impacta no mercado de trabalho, na indústria gigantesca da reprodução assistida, na adoção. É um fenômeno fascinante, que abre uma série de possibilidades de pesquisa. Estou ainda no início.A senhora foi ativa na Conferência...
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