A desaceleração do Brasil é global?
Ilan Goldfajn'O sucesso tem muitos pais, mas o fracasso é órfão", nada mais sucinto para entender o atual debate de política econômica no Brasil. O baixo crescimento, a alta inflação e a baixa qualidade do serviço público no Brasil têm provocado várias críticas de diversos segmentos da sociedade. Mas há outro comportamento comum que merece atenção: "O sucesso foi nosso, o fracasso é global." A tendência (não só no Brasil) é abraçar as conquistas como resultado das políticas locais, mas atribuir as dificuldades a um choque global. O comportamento surge porque não é fácil distinguir as razões locais das globais no que se refere ao sucesso/fracasso. Por exemplo: quanto da atual desaceleração da economia brasileira é um fenômeno global e quanto é resultado das escolhas de política?A pergunta hoje faz sentido porque várias economias emergentes estão desacelerando. A China, que crescia acima de 10%, está com dificuldade de manter o seu crescimento acima de 7% neste e nos próximos anos. Mesmo os países da América Latina, que cresciam forte até o ano passado, em contraste com a desaceleração do Brasil já em curso, estão com perspectivas piores.Muitos se questionam por que as economias emergentes estão desacelerando agora, após se recuperarem tão rapidamente da crise internacional em 2008. Afinal, após um ou dois trimestres de queda em 2009, voltaram a crescer fortemente, parecia que nada poderia abalá-las.Ocorre que o crescimento mundial é mais sincronizado do que se pensava. Mas a sincronização tem defasagens. Enxergo o crescimento mundial como um filme em câmera lenta. A crise financeira atingiu, em primeiro lugar, seu epicentro, os EUA, que foram os primeiros a ver sua economia desacelerar. Na sequência, a desaceleração atingiu a Europa e se propagou para os países periféricos (Grécia, Irlanda, Espanha e Portugal), que estavam mais vulneráveis a uma mudança de curso, o que quase levou à quebra do sistema do euro no ano passado. As economias da China e dos emergentes desaceleraram apenas anos depois, algumas somente neste ano. A capacidade de reação dos emergentes com políticas expansionistas diversas (estímulos creditícios, fiscais e monetários) adiou o impacto. Quando essa capacidade e sua eficácia se esgotaram, a desaceleração finalmente ocorreu. Estamos diante do mesmo filme que começou em 2008...
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