A tendência é piorar
Agostinho Vieiraagostinho@oglobo.com.brCOLUNISTA DO GLOBOMais de 80% de todas as emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) no mundo são provenientes do setor de energia. Portanto, não dá para falar sobre economia de baixo carbono, economia verde, sustentabilidade ou que nome se queira dar a isso, sem discutir a matriz energética mundial. E o cenário não é nada animador. Apenas 13% da energia são gerados a partir de fontes renováveis, como a hidráulica, a eólica e a de biomassa. A polêmica energia nuclear tem 6%, e todo o resto fica com os sujos, porém eficientes, combustíveis fósseis: carvão, petróleo e gás natural.O problema é que a divisão dessa pizza não deve mudar muito nos próximos 30 ou 40 anos. Durante algum tempo se discutiu o risco de que as reservas de petróleo e gás pudessem acabar num futuro próximo. Aos poucos, o tema desapareceu. Na verdade, nos últimos 30 anos, as reservas provadas dos dois produtos cresceram, em média, 2,5% a cada ano. Hoje, estima-se que teremos petróleo por, no mínimo, mais 50 anos. Gás natural para 60 anos e carvão para 120 anos.Isso sem falar nas fontes não convencionais, como as areias betuminosas do Canadá, o gás de xisto dos Estados Unidos e o pré-sal do Brasil. Todos com impactos ambientais ainda não claramente detalhados. Ou seja, não será por falta de oferta ou por problemas graves de preço que os combustíveis fósseis deixarão de dominar o mercado. Além disso, os eventuais problemas geopolíticos com países do Oriente Médio ou com a própria Venezuela passam a ter uma importância relativa.Já o Brasil ocupa uma posição privilegiada nesse contexto. Aqui, 45% da nossa matriz energética são limpos. Se falarmos apenas em geração de energia elétrica, esse índice chega perto dos 90%, com mais de 80% de hidroeletricidade. Mas isso não nos garante um futuro azul, ou verde. Muito pelo contrário. Dependemos das hidrelétricas e do álcool, e ambos enfrentam problemas tanto a curto como a médio prazo.Mais da metade do potencial...
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