O novo sócio
Dado que a Venezuela não cumpre o requerimento político básico para entrar no bloco, a grande pergunta é: na economia será um bom negócio? Num primeiro momento, pode ser bom para Brasil e Argentina, na opinião do economista Pedro Palma, da consultoria Ecoanalítica e professor do Instituto de Estudos Superiores de Administração (IESA) de Caracas.Ele baseia sua tese no argumento de que a Venezuela tem importado cada vez mais para suprir a redução da capacidade produtiva provocada por uma política econômica hostil à s empresas. Com o dólar artificialmente baixo, o país consegue reduzir o preço das importações; com um forte controle de preços, tem atingido diretamente a capacidade de produção interna.A Venezuela vive há muitos anos com inflação anual entre 25% e 30%, a maior da América Latina. Segundo o último dado divulgado, agora está em 21,3% e deve terminar o ano entre 22% e 23%, de acordo com as previsões. O controle de preços é para evitar piora desse problema.- Podemos exportar muito pouco além do petróleo, devido ao ataque persistente do governo à atividade produtiva privada, que destruiu boa parte da estrutura de produção interna e desestimulou investimentos. As expropriações e estatizações fizeram com que a produção em diversas áreas se tornasse pouco eficiente. Isso é verdade na agricultura, agroindústria, atividade manufatureira básica, como cimento e aço. Isso restringiu a capacidade de geração de oferta interna. Paralelamente a isso, o governo aumentou muito o gasto público - diz Palma.Os dados mostram essa disparada: no primeiro semestre, a elevação foi de 24% em termos reais, descontada a inflação, na comparação com igual período do ano passado.Em 2012, o país está crescendo forte. Segundo a previsão do FMI, o PIB deve ter alta de 4,7% este ano - bem acima, por exemplo, da projeção feita para o Brasil (2,5%). No primeiro semestre, a expansão foi de 5,6% em relação ao mesmo período do ano passado. O PIB da construção civil cresceu quase 30%. As importações aumentaram 48% em valor e 38% em volume para atender à demanda criada pelo governo para construir um ambiente favorável nas eleições. E está conseguindo. Hugo Chávez, que tenta o terceiro mandato, continua em primeiro lugar nas pesquisas eleitorais, bem à frente do candidato da oposição, Henrique Capriles.O quadro político é resultado daquele lento desmonte do arcabouço institucional descrito no relatório "Apertando o cerco: concentração...
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