Risco maior no horizonte
Agência SyP põe Brasil em perspectiva negativa citando piora fiscal, PIB fraco e inflaçãoBruno Villas Bôas, Daniel Haidar,Martha Beck, Cássia Almeidaeconomia@oglobo.com.brCREDIBILIDADE EM XEQUERIO E BRASÍLIAUma combinação de fraco crescimento da economia, pressão inflacionária, política fiscal expansionista e perda de credibilidade na política econômica brasileira levaram ontem a agência de classificação de risco Standard y Poor's (SyP) a colocar a nota dos títulos da dívida brasileira em perspectiva negativa, o primeiro passo para cortá-la. É a primeira vez que isso acontece desde 2002, quando a expectativa de vitória de Lula nas eleições provocou forte turbulência no mercado financeiro e o dólar chegou próximo dos R$ 4. O Brasil tem atualmente classificação de risco (o chamado rating) de "BBB" pela SyP, o chamado "grau de investimento", referência usada pelo mercado para avaliar se o país é seguro para investir.- O crescimento da economia do Brasil tem sido baixo e a resposta do governo tem sido uma política fiscal mais expansiva, com deterioração do superávit primário. O problema é que o investimento privado não está se desenvolvendo e a melhora no primeiro trimestre veio de uma base baixa de comparação. A estratégia do governo não tem funcionado e cria incertezas daqui para frente - disse Sebastián Briozzo, diretor responsável pelo rating do Brasil na SyP, em entrevista ao GLOBO, citando também pressões inflacionárias como fator de preocupação.Em comunicado ontem, a SyP afirmou que o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB, conjunto de bens e serviços produzidos pelo país) deve crescer 2,5% neste ano, no que seria "seu terceiro ano de crescimento econômico modesto". A agência culpou os atrasos no estímulo ao investimento privado - especialmente na área de infraestrutura - pelo baixo crescimento. A agência não descarta a hipótese de um rebaixamento num prazo de até dois anos."A perspectiva negativa reflete uma probabilidade de ao menos 33% de que o aumento do endividamento do governo e a erosão da estabilidade macroeconômica possam levar a um rebaixamento do Brasil nos próximos dois anos", informou. Ainda assim, a agência ponderou que também pode revisar a perspectiva para "estável" caso perceba iniciativas do governo capazes de gerar maior confiança no setor privado e, portanto, maior crescimento.A decisão provocou um efeito cascata sobre as...
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